Sevens look to be lucky for UFC Vegas 77, headlined by future hall-of-famer Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva.
Right before that, we’ll (hopefully) see Jack Della Maddalena fight after a slew of unlucky fight cancellations from his opponents. There are some fiery striker matchups on this card including surging young prospects Terrance McKinney and Nazim Sadykhov, as well as a couple of veterans in Albert Duraev and Jun Yong Park.
We’ll also see some of newer additions to the UFC like Melquizael Costa, Viktoriya Dudakova and Ailin Perez. Finally, there’s also a rare female featherweight fight with the best 145er around, Norma Dumont, and the newcomer, Chelsea Chandler. BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 4:00 PM PST)
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Ailin Perez
BET99 Odds
Evans-Smith: +180 Perez: -225
Over 2.5: -193 Under 2.5: +150
Being that Evans-Smith is nearing 36 and has an 0-2 record since 2018, Perez is the automatic pick. To lower those odds, we’ll take her to win by decision. Then, since most of Perez’s fights, win or lose, have ended in a finish, we’ll balance this out with the Under 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Ailin Perez by Decision (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds at +150
Carl Deaton III vs. Alex Munoz
BET99 Odds
Deaton III: +150 Munoz: -184
Over 2.5: -225 Under 2.5: +175
Neither man has found success in the UFC so far with Deaton getting finished in his only fight and Munoz coming up short in a couple decisions. Normally that would lead me to pick the underdog, but not in this case. Munoz lost to a tough contender in Haqparast, then lost a tight split against Luis Pena while Deaton looked less than impressive in his only fight. Since Deaton was also finished in that only fight, might as well take a chance on the Under 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Alex Munoz at -184
Under 2.5 Rounds at +175
Tyson Nam vs. Azat Maksum
BET99 Odds
Nam: +320 Maksum: -434
Over 2.5: +114 Under 2.5: -148
Statistically, the odds are probably right when Nam is almost 40, has a few losses and Maksum is undefeated. That said, this could be one of those cases where an undefeated regional guy takes on a true UFC veteran with real power, durability and skill. At this kind of price, you have to take a chance on the veteran. Also, it’s important to note that Nam has never been forced into a submission and Maksum doesn’t seem to have enough power grab a KO over him. That tells me the Over 2.5 has a chance to cash in.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Tyson Nam (The Underdog) at +320
Over 2.5 Rounds at +114
Genaro Valdéz vs. Evan Elder
BET99 Odds
Valdéz: +240 Elder: -313
Over 1.5: -150 Under 1.5: +120
Like a couple other matchups on this card, this one looks close on paper. Both men have gone 0-2 so far in the UFC. The reason this betting line has become so wide is because Elder has had the tougher matchups and put up the better fights. I have to agree that Elder is likely to win, so we’ll lower the odds by taking him to win with a KO. I agree with Over/Under implying that there could be an earlier finish, but both of these guys are pretty tough. With that in mind, I’ll take the Over 1.5 at -150.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Evan Elder by KO (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Over 1.5 Rounds at -150
Austin Lingo vs. Melquizael Costa
BET99 Odds
Lingo: +183 Costa: -234
Over 2.5: -123 Under 2.5: -105
Costa made his debut against a UFC veteran, Thiago Moises, in his debut at the heavier class of 155. He’s now fighting at 145 against someone who’s 2-2 and struggles against aggressive strikers. Costa, being an aggressive striker, should be able to walk through Lingo in his first “real” UFC fight.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Melquizael Costa by Finish (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds at -105
Istela Nunes vs. Viktoriya Dudakova
BET99 Odds
Nunes: +162 Dudakova: -200
Over 2.5: -123 Under 2.5: -105
With her wealth of kickboxing experience, power and skill, I’ve been giving Istela Nunes the benefit of the doubt for a few fights now. She was close in each of those fights, but succumbed to grappling in each of those encounters. Sadly for her, this may be the strongest grappler she’s faced yet. Maybe Nunes will get the KO and cash in the Under 2.5, but it seems much more likely that Dudakova will use that grappling to grab the decision.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Viktoriya Dudakova by Decision (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds at -105
Tucker Lutz vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan
BET99 Odds
Lutz: +128 Baghdasaryan: -158
Over 2.5: + Under 2.5: +110
It seems a bit surprising that Melsik’s line hasn’t swelled over the week. Lutz hasn’t really shown us anything amazing yet while Melsik has looked pretty impressive in his outings. Also, it should be pointed out that he was close to winning his last fight when Culibao stole the win with an incredible submission. With Melsik probably coming in extra motivated and extra agressive, why not also take a chance on the Under 2.5?
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Melsik Baghdasaryan at -158
Under 2.5 Rounds at +110
Main Card (7:00 PM PST)
Terrance McKinney vs. Nazim Sadykhov
BET99 Odds
McKinney: +122 Sadykhov: -150
Over 1.5: +150 Under 1.5: -193
Heading into this year, McKinney was one of those guys that everyone assumed was going to drop some bombs and get a wild KO. Suddenly he gets finished by a flying knee from Bonfim and he becomes an underdog. While Sadykhov has shown to be game for a brawl, his only UFC fight was against Elder and he did get hit and was also dropped at one point. If there’s anyone you can’t do that with… it’s McKinney. Sadykhov definitely has the skillset to win, but McKinney will always be worth the chance in this kind of matchup.
I know McKinney is known for his quick fights, but he’s been a bit more measured lately. Perhaps both men will be a bit more cautious than normal and we’ll get the Over 1.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Terrance McKinney (The Underdog) at +122
Over 1.5 Rounds at +150
Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler
BET99 Odds
Dumont: -143 Chandler: +116
Over 2.5: -250 Under 2.5: +185
Interestingly, this was the most heated fight at the weigh-ins Friday with Dumont taunting the newcomer Chandler. Honestly, given Dumont’s experience and skill, I think this betting line is a bit disrespectful and that we’ll see an dominant win from her. She’s been turning away almost every contender that takes her on and ALL of them have had more hype and skill than Chandler.
Although another Over 2.5 for the ladies always seems likely, both women have been involved in some finishes. With the heat from the weigh-ins, the mismatch in experience and the potential mismatch in skill, I’ll take a stab at the Under 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Norma Dumont at -143
Under 2.5 Rounds at +185
Albert Duraev vs. Jun Yong Park
BET99 Odds
Duraev: +128 Park: -158
Over 2.5: -134 Under 2.5: +105
This was another betting line I was surprised to see. Duraev has consistently been dangerous and durable, beating and competing with some tough rising prospects with a UFC record of 2-1. On the other side, Park has been had some decent wins too, but has definitely looked beatable in those fights, winning a couple fights by split or majority decision. From what I’ve seen, Duraev has the skill, durability and fight IQ to win this matchup convincingly. What seems very likely though, considering the durability and fight style of both men, is the Over 2.5 betting line cashing in.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Albert Duraev (The Underdog) at +128
Over 2.5 Rounds at -134
Ottman Azaitar vs. Francisco Prado
BET99 Odds
Azaitar: -109 Prado: -113
Over 1.5: +136 Under 1.5: -175
With both men looking even on paper, picking the underdog makes the most sense. That aside, after having some injury issues over the last couple years, Azaitar never even had a chance in his return against Frevola, getting finished in less than a minute. That may push some people to pick Prado, but Ottman openly said he never even really got started in that fight. Based on what we saw from him before that performance, I’m willing to take a shot on the underdog. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a hesitancy to engage in chaos, leading to the Over 1.5 cashing in.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Ottman Azaitar (The Underdog) at -109
Over 1.5 Rounds at +136
Co-Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez
BET99 Odds
JDM: -567 Hafez: +400
Over/Under unavailable at time of post
A few weeks ago JDM was meant to be fighting a true top 10 contender. Now he’s on his third opponent and we’ve devolved into a fight with someone making their debut. Hafez is 8-3 with some questionable results and some grappling matches. That tells me we’re looking at another pretty obvious, vintage 1st Round KO for JDM.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Jack Della Maddalena by KO (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Jack Della Maddalena in Round 1 (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Main Event
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BET99 Odds
Holm: -186 Bueno Silva: +150
Over 4.5: -209 Under 4.5: +160
It’s an absolute shock that the odds for Holm haven’t crossed the -200 mark yet. Holm has been the consensus number 1 contender for years and Bueno Silva hasn’t beaten any top contenders yet. If you’re okay with slightly more risk, we’ll get more specific and take Holly Holm by decision. Then, just in case Silva does the unthinkable and finishes Holm, we’ll take the Under 4.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Holly Holm by Decision at +105
Under 4.5 Rounds at +160
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Jack Della Maddalena + Holly Holm+ Melsik Baghdasaryan (1.00 Units at +196)
The Grand Slam
Jack Della Maddalena + Melsik Baghdasaryan + Norma Dumont + Melquizael Costa (0.50 Units at +367)
The Sniper Pick
Jack Della Maddalena at -567 for 6.00 Units