We’re back in London once again for another UFC fight night headlined by the great Tom Aspinall. The card is filled top to bottom with more English, Scottish and Irish fighters.
Scottish ‘Meatball’ Molly McCann aims to get an early KO in the co-main while debuting, undefeated Irishwoman, Shauna Bannon, takes on Bruna Brasil. Other big British names include Paul Craig, Nathaniel Wood, Lerone Murphy, Jai Herbert, Davey Grant and Marc Diakiese. BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 9:30 AM PST)
Jafel Filho vs. Daniel Barez
BET99 Odds
Filho: -113 Barez: -109
Over 2.5: +100 Under 2.5: -129
If you remember seeing images of Muhammad Mokaev’s leg getting eviscerated recently, Filho was the man who did the damage. Sadly, that was one of his only good moments in that fight where he was ultimately finished by Mokaev. Other than that, he was usually in a bad spot with his back on the canvas. We haven’t seen Daniel Barez in the UFC yet, but he lost a tight, split decision in his Contender Series appearance in 2021.
Since neither man looks like a clear pick, we’ll side with the underdog and that is Barez. He’s also going to be more of a crowd favourite in London, being that he’s from Spain. We could very easily see a decision happen here, but there are finishes all over the records of both of these guys. I’ll take the slightly more likely outcome of Under 2.5 at -129.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Daniel Barez (The Underdog) at -109
Under 2.5 Rounds at -129
Bruna Brasil vs. Shauna Bannon
BET99 Odds
Brasil: -155 Bannon: +125
Over 2.5: -275 Under 2.5: +210
A lot of factors have me siding me Brasil, especially given her size and experience. But then I see a 5-0 Irish prospect who’s probably going to get the London crowd going and I’m a ‘Mama B’ believer. I think Bannon’s underdog status is warranted, but I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt given her record and given Brasil’s performances so far.
What may lead to even more profit though: the Over/Under. We’ve seen a lot of finishes on Brasil’s side and Bannon has a couple finishes herself. May as well take the chance on the Under 2.5 at +210.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Shauna Bannon (The Underdog) at +125
Under 2.5 Rounds at +210
Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz
BET99 Odds
Duncan: -155 Ashmouz: +125
Over 2.5: +136 Under 2.5: -175
Duncan showed some promise, beating Omar Morales earlier this year, but there’s a big difference now that he’s fighting someone undefeated with real striking power and skill. He was knocked out on the Contender Series in 2021, almost got knocked out in his second DWCS appearance; I think there’s a solid chance Ashmouz can do the same to him. Also, with finishes all over their records, the Under 2.5 is the clear pick here, possibly even the Under 1.5 if you can find it somewhere.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Yanal Ashmouz (The Underdog) at +125
Under 2.5 Rounds at -175
Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad
BET99 Odds
Vieira: -158 Kianzad: +128
Over 2.5: -350 Under 2.5: +250
I now have a betting record of 0-3 when Veieira is involved in the fight. That aside, I’m feeling pretty confident that she’ll be able to edge out a win over Kianzad. Vieira has been testing herself against some of the best women in the division’s history with a split decision loss to Raquel Pennington and wins over former champs, Miesha Tate and Holly Holm. Kianzad simply hasn’t reached that level yet, grabbing decisions over all of her unranked opponents and losing to Pennington, Chiasson and Julia Avila.
It may be a longshot, which is why Under 2.5 is set at +250, but Kianzad has been finished a couple times while Vieira has shown some great power and skill in the past. Maybe Vieira will get aggressive and finally earn another finish inside the UFC.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Ketlen Vieira at -158
Over 2.5 Rounds at +250
Bryan Barberena vs. Makhmud Muradov
BET99 Odds
Barberena: +260 Muradov: -350
Over 2.5: +100 Under 2.5: -128
This is just one of those bizarre matchups that almost seems unfair when you hear about it. Barberena normally fights down at 170; now he’s going up to 185 against one of the most dangerous unranked prospects. Muradov, being the bigger, more powerful and more skilled man, will more than likely get a brutal KO and end the UFC journey of Barberena. With a matchup like this, I’m doubling down on the finish, taking Muradov by finish AND the Under 2.5 line.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Makhmud Muradov by Finish (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds at -128
Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues
BET99 Odds
Parkin: +125 Pogues: -155
Over 2.5: -105 Under 2.5: -123
I haven’t seen anything too impressive from either of these men. That already leads me to taking the underdog, but Parkin is also the hometown hero in this scenario, as well as an undefeated prospect. I’ve also heard that he’s a great training partner for Aspinall and KSW heavyweight champ, Phil De Fries.
Like the oddsmakers, I was originally convinced this fight was going longer too. That said, this is a heavyweight fight and I have a feeling Parkin is going to want to make a statement in his debut. I’d actually be taking the Under 1.5 in this scenario if you can find it.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Mick Parkin (The Underdog) at +128
Under 1.5 Rounds (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez
BET99 Odds
Diakiese: +162 Alvarez: -209
Over 2.5: +145 Under 2.5: -186
This is one of the most exciting matchups on the card and may be one of the closer ones on paper. That said, Alvarez seems to be live for a finish on this one. In his pro career, Alvarez has only been to decision once and it was a loss to Ismagulov. His only other loss was last year to Tsarukyan. Diakiese had been one of the more impressive unranked lightweights, but he’s been having problems with aggressive fighters like Fiziev and Rafael Alves. Since Alvarez is also pretty aggressive, he’ll likely get an early submission like Rafael Alves. Just in case Diakiese shows his toughness, we’ll balance this out with the Over 2.5 bet.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Joel Alvarez by Finish (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Over 2.5 Rounds at +145
Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons
BET99 Odds
Roberts: -123 Parsons: +100
Over 2.5: +120 Under 2.5: -155
Roberts is older, has a few losses and is facing a debuting fighter from the Contender Series. Normally that would make me run to Parsons. The only reason I may agree with the betting line on this one is that Parsons’ last fight was in 2021 and it was a split decision win to grab a contract. Although Roberts is older, he’s BIG for the division, has a couple of UFC wins and has faced some elite fighters. Plus, Roberts is one of the many English fighters on this London card. Interestingly, both of these men have been in their fair share of decisions. That makes the Over 2.5 line pretty juicy.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Danny Roberts at -123
Over 2.5 Rounds at +120
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos
BET99 Odds
Grant: +120 Marcos: -148
Over 2.5: -137 Under 2.5: +108
This matchup is shaping up to be one of those classic fights where the veteran, Grant, is surpassed by the new wave of talent. We haven’t seen a lot from Marcos yet, but he’s 14-0 and has looked incredibly consistent and well-rounded. Grant has struggled against those technical, quick strikers like Marcos. I’ll be favouring the rookie here. Since Grant has never been knocked out and hasn’t been finished since 2018, I’ll take Over 2.5 at -137.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Daniel Marcos at -148
Over 2.5 Rounds at -137
Main Card (1:00 PM PST)
Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao
BET99 Odds
Murphy: -148 Culibao: +120
Over 2.5: -209 Under 2.5: +160
Culibao seems to be one of the luckier fighters on the roster with a draw, a split decision and a WILD come-from-behind win in his short UFC journey. Sadly, Culibao is facing an undefeated, technical fighter in his home country. Murphy has looked almost flawless in his UFC career and I believe he’ll continue that this weekend, grabbing another finish.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Lerone Murphy at -148
Under 2.5 Rounds at +160
Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam
BET99 Odds
Herbert: +133 Ziam: -167
Over 2.5: -158 Under 2.5: +122
Sadly for the British fans and Herbert, I don’t think the magic of the crowd is going to help with this matchup. Herbert has been great in the past, but he’s getting a tad slower and is nearing the end of his career. Ziam has been on the opposite trajectory, improving with every fight. I have to pick the younger, rising fighter in this case.
I realize Ziam doesn’t have too many finishes, but Herbert has been finished a few times in his career. Considering those other factors, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Ziam could grab a finish here. With Herbert grabbing some finishes himself, +122 is looking pretty juicy.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Fares Ziam at -167
Under 2.5 Rounds at +122
André Muniz vs. Paul Craig
BET99 Odds
Muniz: -225 Craig: +180
Over 1.5: -129 Under 1.5: +100
With Craig’s recent pereformances, I understand why the betting line is this steep; it’s also why I had originally picked Muniz. What I didn’t think about was the fact that Craig is moving down in weight. That may hurt his chin, but Muniz isn’t really considered much of a striker. Then, after watching the tape a bit more, it also became clear that, in spite of Muniz’s BJJ ability, Craig is going to be a real submission threat. If Craig does well with this weight cut, the London crowd could be treated to an early submission win by the scotsman.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Paul Craig (The Underdog) at +180
Under 1.5 Rounds at +100
Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili
BET99 Odds
Wood: -213 Fili: +171
Over 2.5: -225 Under 2.5: +175
I was hesitant about Wood in this matchup at first given the massive size difference we’re going to see. Then I rewatched Wood’s featherweight debut (his last fight against Jourdain) and I was reminded how slick, quick and smart he is. Also, what makes this interesting is that Fili has also fought Jourdain recently. While Wood dominated, Fili grabbed the split decision win over Jourdain. In order to balance out our Wood pick, just in case Fili gets a KO, we’ll take the Under 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Nathaniel Wood by Decision (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds at +175
Co-Main Event
Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko
BET99 Odds
McCann: -220 Stoliarenko: +175
Over 2.5: +120 Under 2.5: -155
It’s pretty clear what the UFC is doing for this matchup. McCann has been a staple of the London shows for the past couple years while Stoliarenko has been finished in most of her last fights and shown minimal striking ability. This will almost inevitably lead to another quick, spectacular KO for McCann.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Molly McCann by KO (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Under 1.5 Rounds (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Main Event
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
BET99 Odds
Aspinall: -500 Tybura: +350
Over 1.5: +136 Under 1.5: -175
Every moment that Aspinall has been in the cage, it’s a sight a to behold. It’s his first fight back after a terrible injury and the UFC has given him an opponent that favours him perfectly. Given his skills, his youth and his hunger, I’d genuinely be surprised if Tybura made it out of the first round. Also, since Tybura has shown some grappling ability in the past, Aspinall will likely utilize his slick and powerful striking to grab a KO.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Tom Aspinall in Round 1 (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Tom Aspinall by KO (Odds unavailable at time of post)
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Tom Aspinall + Molly McCann + Makhmud Muradov (1.00 Units at +126)
The Grand Slam
Tom Aspinall + Molly McCann + Makhmud Muradov + Lerone Murphy (0.50 Units at +281)
The Sniper Pick
Tom Aspinall at -500 for 5.00 Units