A late weight miss from Michel Pereira has taken a bit of excitement from the card, but UFC 291 still promises high octane violence from Salt Lake City.
The BMF title is on the line once again with Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje scrapping for the belt in the main event. In the co-main, Alex Pereira is looking to earn a title shot in his second division in the UFC, trying overcome Jan Blachowicz. Some of the UFC’s biggest veterans will take the stage as well, including Tony Ferguson, Bobby Green, Derrick Lewis and Michael Chiesa. There’s also some younger names too with Gabriel Bonfim, CJ Vergara, Matthew Semelsberger and Miranda Maverick looking to make statements. BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 4:00 PM PST)
Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira
BET99 Odds
Maverick: -300 Cachoeira: +233
Over 2.5: -106 Under 2.5: -120
Maverick had a rough showing in Vancouver against Jasudavicius that worried me a little bit going into this one on such short notice. Her problem there was Jasmine’s Canadian momentum and her size/strength in the grappling scenarios. Cachoeira doesn’t have the grappling and her cardio has been questionable in the past. With this fight being at altitude in Salt Lake and Maverick’s grappling and chin being pretty strong, you have to side with the one who trained at altitude: Miranda Maverick.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Miranda Maverick by Decision at +171
Under 2.5 Rounds at -120
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic
BET99 Odds
Semelsberger: -217 Medic: +171
Over 1.5: -125 Under 1.5: +100
Semelsberger has been extremely dangerous, large and quick in all of his fights so far. Meanwhile, Medic is looking pretty small, just coming up from 155 pounds. With Medic already looking like an underdog on paper, the size difference will likely be way too much to overcome.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Matthew Semelsberger by Finish at -138
Under 1.5 Rounds at +100
CJ Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador
BET99 Odds
Vergara: -163 Salvador: +133
Over 2.5: +114 Under 2.5: -148
Originally I was going to give Salvador the nod here with his finishing ability. Sadly, based on what we saw on the weigh-ins, I’m favouring Vergara. Salvador came in, extremely drained, near the time deadline and missed weight by over 2 pounds while Vergara was flexing and smiling. With his skillset, the clear advantage on the weight cut and the altitude in Salt Lake, I have to go with Vergara and the Under 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
CJ Vergara at -163
Under 2.5 Rounds at -148
Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers
BET99 Odds
Matthews: -275 Flowers: +214
Over 1.5: -116 Under 1.5: -110
On paper, Jake Matthews should definitely win this fight. The only problem is that we haven’t seen much of Flowers yet and we’ve also seen some inconsistency with Matthews. With so many questions on both sides, I have to go with the underdog and balance it out with the Under 1.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Darrius Flowers (The Underdog) at +214
Under 1.5 Rounds at -110
Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro
BET99 Odds
Kopylov: -217 Ribeiro: +175
Over 1.5: -148 Under 1.5: +114
This is simply just a mismatch. Kopylov seems to be trending up to the top 20 with his well-rounded skillset and cardio. On the other side, Ribeiro has been exciting… but hasn’t looked as polished. Especially with the altitude, I’m leaning towards Kopylov continuing his finishing streak.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Roman Kopylov by Finish at -123
Under 1.5 Rounds at +114
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogério de Lima
BET99 Odds
Lewis: +183 de Lima: -234
Over 1.5: +160 Under 1.5: -209
I’ve said it before; when you have two heavyweights with a lot of power… especially when you’re at altitude, anybody can win. That aside, you can’t forget Lewis’ KO record. I also find his weight transformation very intriguing and hope it means a win.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Derrick Lewis (The Underdog) at +183
Under 1.5 Rounds at -209
Trevin Giles vs. Gabriel Bonfim
BET99 Odds
Giles: +250 Bonfim: -325
Over 1.5: +114 Under 1.5: -145
Even though his brother lost recently, I’m still fully convinced Gabriel Bonfim can compete in the top 15. Giles hasn’t shown that same ability when given the shot and he’s shown issues with submission artists. With Bonfim’s grappling ability and pace, as well as his size, he should be able to win quickly and/or with a submission.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Gabriel Bonfim by Submission at +128
Under 1.5 Rounds at -145
Main Card (7:00 PM PST)
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
BET99 Odds
Chiesa: +120 Holland: -148
Over 2.5: +145 Under 2.5: -189
Chiesa hasn’t looked like an elite contender since about 2020 and hasn’t fought for about 2 years. He’s also shown some glaring weaknesses in his striking. With Holland in his prime, also being that he’s a knockout artist with a huge reach advantage, it would be somewhat surprising if Holland didn’t get a KO. We’ll balance that out with the Over 2.5, just in case Chiesa shows his toughness and uses his grappling well.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Kevin Holland by KO at +157
Over 2.5 Rounds at +145
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
BET99 Odds
Ferguson: +280 Green: -375
Over 2.5: -143 Under 2.5: +112
I’m not going to count Ferguson out completely, but I think his only chance is a wild submission that Green doesn’t see coming. To cover all the bases, we’ll take a Green decision at +116 and balance it out with the Under 2.5 at +112.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Bobby Green by Decision at +116
Under 2.5 Rounds at +112
Co-Main Event
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
BET99 Odds
Blachowicz: -119 Pereira: -105
Over 1.5: -143 Under 1.5: +112
We already know what Jan is going to try and do because he did it against Adesanya. He’s going to have to avoid the power and skill of Pereira on the feet and grapple him to a decision win. It worked on Izzy because he’s much smaller and wasn’t as skilled at getting back up off the ground. With Pereira’s size and Glover’s grappling influence (his coach), this will be much harder to achieve now. Even Pereira gets out-grappled, he still holds a chance to grab a KO in all 3 rounds. With all that said, there’s really two pretty clear, likely outcomes: Alex Pereira gets a KO or Jan grinds Alex down with a decision.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Alex Pereira by KO at +157
Jan Blachowicz by Decision at +300
Main Event
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
BET99 Odds
Poirier: -150 Gaethje: +122
Over 2.5: -134 Under 2.5: +105
At the start of the week, before watching the tape, I agreed with the masses that Poirier had the best chance in this situation. Then, especially after watching Gaethje’s last fight with Fiziev, I remembered how clean and quick of a striker he can be. Poirier has been rocked in all of his last few fights; I think that with this being a 5 round fight at altitude, you can’t get hit like that consistently. Gaethje trains at altitude and will not let up the pace at all over 25 minutes. That pushes me to take a stab at the underdog. Finally, we also have to take a shot at the Over 2.5 line. With both men being so durable, I would actually be a bit surprised if there was an earlier finish.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Justin Gaethje (The Underdog) at +122
Over 2.5 Rounds at -134
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Gabriel Bonfim + Roman Kopylov + Matthew Semelsberger (1.00 Units at +179)
The Grand Slam
Gabriel Bonfim + Roman Kopylov + Matthew Semelsberger + Kevin Holland (0.50 Units at +369)
The Sniper Pick
Gabriel Bonfim at -325 for 4.00 Units