UFC Vegas 76 may not be bringing the household names, but it’s certainly bringing one of the most impressive collections of MMA skill we’ve seen in a while.
We’ll be treated to some of the most elite striking in the UFC with the return of both Damir Ismagulov and Guram Kutateladze. We’ll also see some incredible grappling from Rinat Fakhretdinov who’s taking on the returning ‘Motown Phenom’, Kevin Lee. Not to mention, we’ll also see some of the most exciting, young names in UFC like the undefeated Michael Morales. We’ll also have Ismael Bonfim, Alexandr Romanov, Brunno Ferreira and the monstrous UFC debutant, Nursulton Ruziboev. BLÜ provides his best bets for all of these matchups (plus more) below along with the Bet99 Sportsbook Odds.
To follow BLÜ’s Best Betting System, simply put 1.00 Units on each of the bets below unless otherwise specified. When these bets are combined with the Sniper Pick and the parlays below, profits can be maximized and losses can be minimized. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but BLÜ’s goal is to bring consistent profit to the viewers over the long term and constantly refine his system.
Due to the unpredictable nature of betting sites like Bet99 and the sport of MMA, odds will likely change throughout the week and may be unavailable for some of these bets at the time this article is posted. This also means that BLÜ may opt to swap a couple of these bets out on Friday night for others in order to maximize profit. The results of BLÜ’s Best Bets will be covered on ‘BLÜ’s Best Bets’, live on BLÜ’s Twitter (BLBEARD2), the Area 51 Sports Network Twitter (Area51SportsNet) and on YouTube (BLU-FC) next Wednesday at 4:00 PM (PST).
BLU’s Prelim Picks (Prelims begin at 1:30 PM PST)
Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener
BET99 Odds
Kutateladze: -700 Brener: +466
Over 2.5: -118 Under 2.5: -109
Brener showed a lot of great promise in his debut performance against Tukhugov, but Guram is on a completely different level. Guram has only had two fights in the UFC, both against current top 10 talents Gamrot and Ismagulov and ended up in split decisions with both of them. The only reason this man isn’t in the top 10 right now is because he’s had so many opponents fall out. I’m 99% sure he’ll grab the win, making him my sniper pick for the week. To lower his odds, we’ll take him to win by decision and balance it out with the Under 2.5 Round prop.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Guram Kutateladze by Decision (Odds Unavailable at time of post)
Under 2.5 Rounds at -109
Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov
BET99 Odds
Romanov: -134 Ivanov: +110
Over 1.5: -200 Under 1.5: +157
Romanov has had some struggles in his last couple fights, mainly with his cardio. He fights with a heavy grappling pace. Since Tybura was able to withstand his onslaught, he ended up losing a tight decision. Ivanov is durable… but he certainly is not a grappler. With Romanov’s intense grappling and remarkable submission ability, he’s got the huge advantage in this matchup. I also have to mention the height, age and weight advantage that Romanov will likely hold on top of those skills. Ivanov tends to find himself in decisions, but with Romanov’s grappling, there’s a distinct chance we could see this end early.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Alexandr Romanov at -134
Under 1.5 Rounds at +157
Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson
BET99 Odds
Brito: -1400 Wilson: +750
Over 1.5: +185 Under 1.5: -240
Brito is a human wrecking ball and Wilson has been finished multiple times in the 1st Round by people with suspect records. This is another massacre waiting to happen, so we’ve gotta look into some pretty specific prop bets to make any money here. I’ll be taking Brito in the 1st Round and Brito by Submission (Wilson has been submitted 6 times in his MMA career).
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Joanderson Brito in the 1st Round (Odds Unavailable at time of post)
Joanderson Brito by Submission (Odds Unavailable at time of post)
Ivana Petrović vs. Luana Carolina
BET99 Odds
Petrović : -225 Carolina: +180
Over 2.5: -260 Under 2.5: +190
Don’t let either of these women’s records fool you, this seems to be a pretty tight matchup. Petrović is 6-0, but hasn’t really faced a UFC-level opponent and won a split decision last year over someone who was 5-4. Meanwhile, Carolina is 8-4 and just grabbed a split decision loss against Joanne Wood who almost had a title shot a couple years ago. She’s also grabbed wins over ‘Loopy’ Godinez, Poliana Botelho and Priscila Cachoeira. I’m not saying Carolina should be the favourite, but I’m more than willing to put a little bit of cash on a more-experienced, durable underdog.
Carolina has been finished before while Petrović has grabbed many finishes, so we’ll balance out our pick with the Under 2.5 line.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Luana Carolina (The Underdog) at +180
Under 2.5 Rounds at +190
Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa
BET99 Odds
Santos: +140 Rosa: -172
Over 2.5: -325 Under 2.5: +233
With both of these women having completely inconsistent results and performances, we have to the underdog in order to keep long-term profit. That aside, Rosa was dominated by Norma Dumont and Sara McMann and won a split over Lansberg for her last 3 fights. Comparatively, Santos beat top contender Ketlen Vieira, lost to Irene Aldana, and was then dominated by the long-reigning number 1 contender, Holly Holm. Santos’ clinchwork, grappling and elite experience should win her this matchup.
Again, even though the women don’t have many finishes, with these two being so inconsistent, why not take a chance on the Under 2.5 rounds?
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Yana Santos (The Underdog) at +140
Under 2.5 Rounds at +233
Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
BET99 Odds
Lee: +162 Fakhretdinov: -200
Over 2.5: -160 Under 2.5: +125
Kevin Lee used to use his power and his wrestling to win; sadly, Rinat isn’t someone you can do that to. Rinat is 21-2 and has absolutely dominated his UFC opponents with grappling, cardio and quick strikes. Lee has been submitted 3 times in his last 8 fights and will more than likely get manhandled by the strong grappler in Rinat. Not to mention, Lee’s cardio has been a question for a while; unless he gets a knockout, he’ll lose this fight. It’s because of Lee’s knockout power and Rinat’s ground game that I’ll balance out the pick with the Under 2.5 betting line.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Rinat Fakhretdinov at -200
Under 2.5 Rounds at +125
Main Card (4:00 PM PST)
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Brunno Ferreira
BET99 Odds
Ruziboev: +171 Ferreira: -217
Over 1.5: +150 Under 1.5: -193
The only reason Ferreira is the favourite here is because no casual MMA fan and, most likely, seasoned UFC fans, have ever seen Ruziboev because he’s not on UFC Fight Pass. A quick YouTube search later and every UFC middleweight should be terrified. He’s one of the tallest, largest fighters I’ve ever seen, he’s quick, creative and dangerous everywhere. I don’t know how he’ll handle the power of Ferreira, but, this is someone we could be seeing around for quite a while.
With both men earning a wild number of 1st Round finishes, I’ll actually be taking the Under 1.5. This isn’t a fight you’ll want to miss.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Nursulton Ruziboev (The Underdog) at +171
Under 1.5 Rounds at -193
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Ismael Bonfim
BET99 Odds
Saint-Denis: +250 Bonfim: -334
Over 1.5: -193 Under 1.5: +150
Once again, we’ve got another pretty clear winner in this matchup. Both of the Bonfim brothers have proven themselves to be truly elite and dangerous, potential future title contenders. The big moment for Bonfim, of course, was his flying knee KO over another elite contender in Terrance McKinney. Saint-Denis has shown minimal striking defence in his UFC tenure so far, so we could easily see another KO for Bonfim. That said, Benoit is one of the toughest, most durable men I’ve ever seen in the cage, so we’ll balance it out with the Over 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Ismael Bonfim by Finish at -134
Over 2.5 Rounds (Odds Unavailable at time of post)
Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto
BET99 Odds
Lipski: +183 Gatto: -234
Over 2.5: -143 Under 2.5: +112
Although I’m not overly impressed by either fighter, there’s definitely a clear pick to be made in this matchup. Lipski has struggled with consistency in her UFC career and has struggled with strikers in the past. Meanwhile, Gatto is much larger than her and has grabbed a KO in the UFC. Gatto should be able to either grab a KO or simply control Lipski, being the more physical, larger woman.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Melissa Gatto by Decision at +220
Under 2.5 Rounds at +112
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales
BET99 Odds
Griffin: +200 Morales: -250
Over 2.5: -134 Under 2.5: +105
Still undefeated and very young, Morales has been taking it slow in the UFC, taking matchups that he should able to win convincingly. Although Griffin may be his toughest test, except for possibly his fight against Fugitt, he still should be able to win this fairly easily. He’s much younger, much larger and has a more dangerous, well-rounded skillset. Since he’s such a large favourite, we’ll lower the odds with Morales by Finish. But, just in case Griffin is as durable as he normally is… or if Griffin shocks the world, we’ll back that up with the Over 2.5.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Michael Morales by Finish at +120
Over 2.5 Rounds at -134
Co-Main Event
Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson
BET99 Odds
Ismagulov: -113 Dawson: -109
Over 2.5: -225 Under 2.5: +175
This betting line still surprises me; in fact, it’s even more surprising to me that the numbers haven’t swelled towards Ismagulov as the week has gone on. Ismagulov has proven to be one of the most precise strikers in the division, easily worthy of a top 10 ranking. On the other side, Dawson has been beating the older UFC veterans in close battles outside the top 20. I would be shocked if Dawson was able to somehow win this fight given Damir’s striking and takedown defence. Also, I feel the need to point out that Dawson has had issues with striking defence in the past, so a KO for Damir is more than plausible.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Damir Ismagulov at -113
Under 2.5 Rounds at +175
Main Event
Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov
BET99 Odds
Strickland: -150 Magomedov: +122
Over 3.5: -137 Under 3.5: +108
On paper, this is actually a pretty strange and fairly one-sided matchup. Strickland has been consistently able to do well against top 10 opponents, including a split decision loss to the number 2 contender in Jared Cannonier. As for Magomedov, he’s only had 1 UFC fight and it lasted 30 seconds against someone who doesn’t belong in the UFC. Outside that, he fought in the PFL and was knocked out there twice. On paper, that makes Strickland a pretty obvious pick. In reality, it may not turn out that way and Abus could grab a highlight KO off of him like Alex Pereira, but we’ll see. Just in case that happens, we’ll take the Under 3.5 at plus money, but we still have to take Strickland given all those factors on paper.
BLÜ’s Best Bets
Sean Strickland at -150
Under 3.5 Rounds at +108
Parlay Opportunities
The Triple Play
Joanderson Brito + Guram Kutateladze + Ismael Bonfim (1.00 Units at -169)
The Grand Slam
Joanderson Brito + Ismael Bonfim + Damir Ismagulov + Michael Morales (0.50 Units at +268)
The Sniper Pick
Guram Kutateladze at -700 for 7.00 Units