It’s time to put Auston Matthews firmly in the MVP conversation. On Thursday night, Matthews willed the Maple Leafs to an important win over the Philadelphia Flyers, scoring a natural hat-trick with a trio of snipes in the second period. Matthews’ 5th hat-trick of the season brought his goal total to 45 in just 51 games, putting him on pace for 72 goals in 81 games. Matthews is the first player with 45 goals in a team’s first 52 games since Mario Lemieux in 1996. With every goal, Auston Matthews forces himself further into the MVP conversation.
Auston Matthews MVP Case
Auston Matthews is an overwhelming favourite to add a third Rocket Richard trophy to his collection. Barring injury or an unheard-of slump, the chances Sam Reinhart or anybody else catches Matthews in the goal category are minuscule. Is the Leafs’ superstar worthy of his second MVP as well?
So far this season, the Toronto Maples Leafs have scored 180 goals as a team. Auston Matthews has 45 of those 180 goals, good for exactly 25% of the team’s total goals. Without a quarter of their goals, the Maple Leafs would be closer to the draft lottery than the playoffs.
While Matthews is over 20 points behind the league leader, it’s important to remember how difficult it is to score goals in today’s NHL. If Matthews continues his torrid pace and becomes the first NHL player to reach 70 goals in over two decades, the point difference likely won’t stop him from claiming the Hart Trophy. When Matthews won MVP for his 60-goal 2021-2022 season, he was 6th in overall points. Connor McDavid led the league with 123 points, 17 more than Matthews. The voters made it clear that if a player scores goals at a historic pace, they are willing to overlook a difference in point totals.
Who Can Stop Matthews?
Right now, there are four main candidates to stop Matthews from collecting his second MVP.
Nathan Mackinnon
Mackinnon has been downright dominant for the Colorado Avalanche this season, tallying 89 points in 55 games. He leads the league with 55 even-strength points and trails only teammate Mikko Rantanen in time on ice among forwards. MacKinnon has been tabbed as the MVP favourite for good reason, he looks determined to capture the first Hart Trophy of his career.
Nikita Kucherov
Kucherov leads the NHL with 93 points in 53 games, putting him on pace for a ridiculous 137 points. This would eclipse his career-best 128-point season which won him the Hart Trophy in 2018-19. Kuch isn’t just piling up assists either, he’s on track to score 50 goals for the first time in his career. Kucherov will be hard to beat if he continues his outstanding play.
Connor McDavid
Considering his lofty standards, McDavid hasn’t been at his best this year. Despite that, he still has 80 points in 48 games and as his recent six-assist night reminded us, he can pile up points fast. He’s the best player in the world, and you can never count him out of the MVP race.
David Pastrnak
A Hart nominee last year, Pastrnak is putting together another wonderful season in Boston. Pasta is pacing the Eastern Conference-leading Bruins with 78 points. He’s also averaging a career-high 19:58 per game. The Czech winger may be the least likely of these four candidates to win the Hart, but he’s earned consideration.
Who do you think will win the Hart Trophy? Has Auston Matthews done enough to force himself into the MVP conversation? Let me know and be sure to stay tuned as Area 51 covers the rest of the NHL season.